Well that didn’t help.
That’s what Oscar prognosticators were thinking when Emily Blunt won the Female Supporting Actor Award for A Quiet Place. In doing so, she became only the second winner in the 25 year history of the Screen Actors Guild Awards to not even be nominated for an Oscar in the same category. (The first was in 2015, when Oscar snubbed Idris Elba won Supporting Male Actor for Beasts of No Nation.)
For pundits looking to SAG as a major tea leaf for who’ll win on Oscar night, the Blunt win only confused evolving awards season narratives.
In less shocking fashion yet still an upset, Rami Malek took Male Actor in a Leading Role honors for his turn as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, beating out the perceived Oscar favorite Christian Bale for Vice. In doing so, Malek won for a singing performance in which he lip synced while Bradley Cooper, who actually sang his songs in A Star Is Born, was left as an also-ran.
The Lead Actress and Supporting Actor Oscar favorites each solidified their frontrunner status; respectively, Glenn Close won for The Wife and Mahershala Ali won for Green Book.
Capping off the night was one last worthy surprise: Black Panther winning Best Cast, SAG’s Best Picture equivalent. (The Marvel blockbuster also won for Best Stunt Ensemble.) That’s a hit for fellow Best Picture Oscar nominees BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star Is Born.
So what does that all mean for predicting the Academy Awards? Perhaps not as much confusion as it may appear. The SAG voting body is much bigger and more populist than the Academy acting branch. (Case in point: Emily Blunt had two nominations from SAG this year but zero from the Academy.) SAG membership spans the country while Academy voters are mostly centered in the L.A. and New York industries.
Consequently, the Malek win here makes sense for the hugely popular Bohemian Rhapsody. However, I wouldn’t expect a lip sync performance to get top honors with the more discerning Academy. (I’m still betting on Bale or Cooper.)
Likewise, and for similar reasons, as much as I’d love to see a Black Panther Best Picture win, don’t hold your breath. Of the SAG nominees, it’s BlacKkKlansman and A Star Is Born that are still the strongest Best Pic contenders, with BlacKkKlansman holding the edge.
And what to make of that Emily Blunt stunner? Ironically, it probably means that Regina King, who wasn’t even SAG nominated, is now the Best Supporting Actress frontrunner (joining Close and Ali for their respective races). Despite the SAG snub, Oscar nominee King dominated the critics group awards for her supporting standout work in If Beale Street Could Talk, while also taking the same prize at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
The 25th Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out live on Sunday January 27, 2019, with host Megan Mullally.
25th Annual
SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD WINNERS
Films of 2018
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
WINNER: Black Panther
– BlacKkKlansman
– Bohemian Rhapsody
– Crazy Rich Asians
– A Star Is Born
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
WINNER: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
– Christian Bale, Vice
– Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
– Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
– John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
WINNER: Glenn Close, The Wife
– Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
– Olivia Colman, The Favourite
– Lady Gaga ,A Star Is Born
– Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
WINNER: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
– Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
– Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
– Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
– Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
WINNER: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
– Amy Adams, Vice
– Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
– Emma Stone, The Favourite
– Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
WINNER: Black Panther
– Ant-Man and the Wasp
– Avengers: Infinity War
– The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
– Mission: Impossible – Fallout
54th Life Achievement Recipient
Alan Alda
Click on links below for other Critics Group Awards and Guild Nominees that have been announced so far for the 2018 / 19 season:
Academy Award Nominations
Producers Guild of America Winners
Critics Choice Awards Winners
Directors Guild of America Nominees
Writers Guild of America Nominees
Golden Globe Winners
National Society of Film Critics
Boston Society of Film Critics
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Screen Actors Guild Nominees
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Toronto Film Critics Association
Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
AFI Film Awards
Detroit Film Critics Society
Atlanta Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Circle
The National Board of Review