I’m not a big gambler, but betting on Everything Everywhere All At Once sure seems like easy money.

The wild and crazy multiverse indie breakout sensation of 2022 (both commercially and critically) has dominated this year’s awards cycle. After fellow Best Picture nominee TÁR was shown some early love by initial critics groups, Everything Everywhere soon took the pole position in the Oscar race and never gave up its lead. If anything, it stretch the gap even wider than people were expecting, sweeping all the major industry guild awards — Producers, Director, Writers, and Screen Actors — and even setting a new SAG record with 4 wins by a single movie.

Hollywood loves Everything Everywhere All At Once, and we’ll see that love gush on Oscar night.

Best Picture is a sure thing, as is Director and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan). Michelle Yeoh and Jamie Lee Curtis are strong contenders in both Actress categories following their wins at SAG, as are writer / directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (The Daniels) in the Original Screenplay category. And if it could snag at least one technical award (Score? Editing?), then Everything Everywhere All At Once would officially have a sweep with 7 Academy Awards including Best Picture. That would be the most since 2008 and 2009 when Best Picture winners Slumdog Millionaire and The Hurt Locker won 8 and 6 statues, respectively.

So does that mean this year’s Oscars is predictable from top to bottom? Not necessarily. In fact, there are several tight races that could go either way, including in major categories. (And, in the end, I’m only predicting four wins for Everything Everywhere, perhaps against my better judgment and what the trends seem to be suggesting — even screaming.)

Below, I make predictions for who will win in every category. I also provide commentary in all 23 Oscar categories to further unpack my thinking behind each prediction.

In addition, along with the “Will Win” predictions, I’ve also included my personal preferences in “Should Win” choices and, finally, I cover all the bases with “Upset Possibilities” for each category.

Here are my best guesses as to how things will play out when the Oscars are handed out at the 95th Annual Academy Awards on Sunday night, March 12, 2023 on ABC beginning at 8:00 PM Eastern.

My Predictions for
THE 95th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS
(Honoring the Best in Film for 2022)

BEST PICTURE

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• The Fabelmans
• TÁR
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick or The Banshees of Inisherin (I’d vote Maverick because it would be so cool to see a worthy blockbuster win the top prize for the first time in twenty years.)

Upset Possibilities: In the absolute longest of long shots, All Quiet, Banshees or Fabelmans would pull an upset here, but it’s not going to happen. Everything Everywhere will live up to it’s name as it sweeps the Academy Awards in a way we haven’t seen in almost fifteen years.

EEAO is a very non-Oscary indie but, despite that, it has been a juggernaut all throughout the awards season, racking up wins at all of the major industry guild awards. EEAO will complete its dominant run on Oscar night with a Best Picture win. Bet on it.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
• Todd Field, TÁR
• Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should Win: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin or Todd Field, TÁR (I’d vote Field)

Upset Possibilities: Maybe (and that’s a big maybe) Spielberg pulls an upset here out of sheer admiration for the icon that he is (and also for pouring out his soul and family secrets into this ersatz memoir), but The Daniels locked this up after their Directors Guild win for Everything Everywhere.

BEST ACTOR

• Austin Butler, Elvis
• Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brendan Fraser, The Whale
• Paul Mescal, Aftersun
• Bill Nighy, Living

Will Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Should Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Upset Possibilities: Austin Butler won the BAFTA (the British Oscars) for his spectacular turn as Elvis, and many BAFTA members are also Academy members. Plus, it’s been 13 years since someone won Best Actor without their film receiving a Best Picture nomination (Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart). Yet while The Whale is absent from the Best Picture lineup this year, Brendan Fraser feels like the favorite. He won the SAG award, he’s won several others at major awards galas, and he’s given stirring acceptance speeches each time. It’s the comeback story of the year. (Well, one of them. We’ll get to the other soon enough.)

It’s not a lock, but Fraser should have this. And he deserves it. As hyperbolic as it may sound, it’s one of the best screen performances I have ever seen, full stop. It should be honored with an Academy Award.

BEST ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett, TÁR
• Ana De Armas, Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
• Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once or Cate Blanchett, TÁR (I’d vote Yeoh)

Upset Possibilities: This is a dead heat between Yeoh and Blanchett. The TÁR actress (already a two-time Oscar winner) had been sweeping the awards season including a win at the BAFTAs, but then along came Michelle Yeoh to snag the SAG out from under Cate. Given that guild full-on embrace of EEAO (along with most other guilds), the tea leaves seem to favor Yeoh in this very tight race.

I wouldn’t recommend placing bets on this race — but if I was forced to at gunpoint, I’d go all-in on Michelle Yeoh.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
• Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should Win: Anybody but Hirsch (I’d probably vote Quan, with sentiment being the tiebreaker)

Upset Possibilities: In what is the most unlikely Oscar lock that we’ve ever seen, the former Short Round (Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom) and Data (The Goonies) is about to come out of nowhere and win an Academy Award — and do it easily. The former child actor with a thick Asian accent was never able to mount an acting career into adulthood, eventually giving up to become a stunt coordinator. But two years ago when he decided to give his dream one last shot, along came the script for Everything Everywhere All At Once and…the rest is history.

Or soon will be, when Quan wins the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor in what is probably the surest Sure Thing of the whole night. Bank on a memorable, tear-filled speech defined by enthusiasm and gratitude as well. Along with Brendan Fraser, Quan is the Comeback Story of the Year. Or more like the last decade (at least).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Hong Chau, The Whale
• Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Will Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Upset Possibilities: If Angela Bassett doesn’t win for Wakanda Forever, Jamie Lee Curtis will follow up her SAG win here for Everything Everywhere All At Once. After Bassett dominated the awards season early on, Curtis’s SAG win was an upset. Both are respected, beloved legends in their own right, too, so even there this feels like a tie.

With all things being equal between the two, it’s important to recognize that the industry remains sensitive to identity politics and ongoing criticisms of #OscarsSoWhite. As a result, I think progressive values will tip the scales in Bassett’s favor.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All At Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
• The Fabelmans, Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg
• TÁR, Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
Should Win: TÁR, Todd Field

Upset Possibilities: This one’s a tough call. The Daniels won the Writers Guild award for EEAAO, but McDonagh’s Banshees was ineligible for that award because it was a British production (or something weird like that). Given that The Daniels will assuredly get their Oscars in the Director and Picture categories, this feels like the place that Academy members will choose to award McDonagh and The Banshees of Inisherin, which did receive the second most nominations this year with 9.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• All Quiet on the Western Front, Edward Berger, Ian Stokell and Lesley Paterson
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Rian Johnson
• Living, Kazuo Ishiguro
• Top Gun: Maverick, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie
• Women Talking, Sarah Polley and Miriam Toews

Will Win: Women Talking, Sarah Polley and Miriam Toews
Should Win: Living, Kazuo Ishiguro or Top Gun: Maverick, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie (I’d vote Maverick)

Upset Possibilities: There’s a slight possibility that All Quiet could win here, given the admiration the Academy has shown with the film’s 9 nominations, but more than likely the voting members will show their admiration to Sarah Polley and her Mennonite #MeToo tale Women Talking. It’s exactly the kind of issue-driven movie that the Academy would love to support, especially since it was written by two women.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Upset Possibilities: If Ke Huy Quan is the surest lock of the night, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is probably a close second. It’s far-and-away the class of this category and, from where I was sitting, it was the Best Film of 2022, animated or otherwise. This Pinocchio is Guillermo del Toro’s masterwork.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
• Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
• Close (Belgium)
• EO (Poland)
• The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: EO or All Quiet on the Western Front (I’d vote for EO)

Upset Possibilities: This is where the 9-time nominated All Quiet on the Western Front will cash in its chips. As the only international nominee to also be nominated for Best Picture, this seems like a slam dunk for the German language war epic.

Personally I’d go with the beautifully crafted Polish art film EO about the journeys of a donkey (and, from what I’ve heard, Ireland’s The Quiet Girl is a must-see, too), but All Quiet should annex this Oscar with ease.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• All That Breathes
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
• Fire of Love
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny

Will Win: Navalny
Should Win: All That Breathes

Upset Possibilities: This is a tough one. The issue-driven All The Beauty and the Bloodshed (with its 1-2 punch of gay art / fighting AIDS and taking on Big Pharma and the opioid epidemic) was the consensus pick of critics, but Fire of Love or All That Breathes could touch the heart of Oscar voters. That, or the very relevant Navalny, about the Russian-opposition leader who was poisoned by Vladimir Putin, could easily win here, too.

In a tough call, I predict Navalny because of its wins at BAFTA and the Producers Guild, but my gut instinct says Fire of Love for two reasons: voters will find it emotionally affecting and it’s likely been seen by the most members as it’s been streaming on Disney Plus since last fall.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• All Quiet on the Western Front, Volker Bertelmann
• Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
• The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell
• Everything Everywhere All At Once, Son Lux
• The Fabelmans, John Williams

Will Win: Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell

Upset Possibilities: Another tough call. My guess is that Justin Hurwitz’s jazzy flair in Babylon, but I could easily see Volker Bertelmann’s bombastically haunting textures for All Quiet on the Western Front being awarded here, too.

Personally I’d go with Carter Burwell and The Banshees of Inisherin; Burwell is an industry legend most notable for his collaborations with the Coen Brothers, and his lamenting, melancholic cues for Banshees best exemplifies the movie it underscores.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman), Diane Warren
• “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick), Lady Gaga and Bloodpop
• “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Göransson
• “Naatu Naatu” (RRR), M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose
• “This Is A Life” (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR), M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR), M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose

Upset Possibilities: The actual sequence for the song “Naatu Naatu” in the India / Hindu epic RRR is one of the year’s cinematic joys, and whatever they cook up for the live performance should be a major highlight on Oscar night.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

• The Elephant Whisperers (Netflix)
• Haulout (YouTube, The New Yorker)
• How Do You Measure a Year? (will premiere on HBO Max on Father’s Day)
• The Martha Mitchell Effect (Netflix)
• Stranger at the Gate (YouTube, The New Yorker)

Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Should Win: Haulout, The Martha Mitchell Effect, or Stranger at the Gate (I’d vote for Martha Mitchell)

Upset Possibilities: The Elephant Whisperers is the consensus favorite by Oscar prognosticators because 1) it’s the heart-tugger (about people who fight for the survival of orphaned elephants in South India), and 2) it’s on Netflix, so it will have been widely seen.

I’d agree that the prognosticators’ hunch is probably right, but The Martha Mitchell Effect (about a vital and fascinating Watergate figure mostly unknown by anyone younger than a Baby Boomer), Stranger at the Gate (an amazing tale of repentance by a former Marine who set out to bomb his local American mosque) and Haulout (a phenomenally -shot piece about a marine biologist’s documentation of how climate change is endangering walruses in the Antarctic) are all better and more worthy of recognition.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

• An Irish Goodbye
• Ivalu (Vimeo)
• Le Pupille (Disney+)
• Night Ride (YouTube, The New Yorker)
• The Red Suitcase

Will Win: Le Pupille
Should Win: Ivalu or The Red Suitcase

Upset Possibilities: I think Le Pupille is the favorite here. I think. It’s a very well-crafted French film set in a convent’s all-girls boarding school at Christmas time, it’s produced by multi-Oscar winner Alfonso Cuarón (Roma, Gravity), and it’s on Disney Plus. That’s a lot of checks in its favor. Still, I found Ivalu and The Red Suitcase to be the most compelling of the bunch (and well-crafted, too). And then there’s An Irish Goodbye which, while the weakest, is the lone English-language option, and that may be its ace in the hole.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (AppleTV+)
• The Flying Sailor (YouTube, The New Yorker)
• Ice Merchants (YouTube, The New Yorker)
• My Year of Dicks (Vimeo and Hulu)
• An Ostrich Told Me The World is Fake and I Think I Believe It (Vimeo)

Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Should Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Upset Possibilities: There’s going to be a lot of voters choosing My Year of Dicks if for no other reason to hear it announced during the Oscar ceremony (and it’s well done, too, not nearly as provocative as it’s title; while still sexually frank and candid, it’s more a touching coming-of-age story). But The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse is one of the most moving and emotionally affirming (and comforting) films of the year, regardless of length. Plus, it’s on Apple TV+ so it’s likely been seen by a lot of voters and, most of all, it’s based on a literary sensation.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• All Quiet on the Western Front, James Friend
• Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Darius Khondji
• Elvis, Mandy Walker
• Empire of Light, Roger Deakins
• TÁR, Florian Hoffmeister

Will Win: Elvis, Mandy Walker
Should Win: Elvis, TÁR, or All Quiet on the Western Front

Upset Possibilities: The fact that Top Gun: Maverick wasn’t even nominated here is one of the more ridiculous oversights you’ll ever see. All Quiet sure looks and feels like a classic winner here (and it certainly could be) with its epic war film sweep and grit, but I’m guessing that the DP for the King will be this category’s first-ever Queen.

This year, Mandy Walker became the first woman ever to win the top prize from the Cinematographers Guild. Now she’s the default front runner for Baz Luhrmann’s lush, kinetic Elvis, and she’d become the first woman to win the Best Cinematography Oscar, too. Expect it to happen, especially since this would be the clear-cut place to give the Best Picture nominee an award.

BEST FILM EDITING

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• TÁR
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick or Elvis

Upset Possibilities: This category is historically difficult to predict. EEAAO and Maverick split the top two awards from this year’s Cinema Editors Guild, so the race is likely between those two. I’ve got Maverick winning, but if I’m wrong it’ll be EEAAO.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front or Babylon

Upset Possibilities: The lavish Hollywood Silent Era of Babylon has a serious shot here (it won the Production Guild award) but there’s not much actual love for the movie itself across the broader Academy, so I’m betting that the scale and period detail of All Quiet on the Western Front will win out.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Babylon
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Elvis or Babylon

Upset Possibilities: Elvis and EEAAO split awards from the Costume Guild, but I’m betting the period clothing spanning three decades in the mid 20th Century will win out over EEAAO‘s lower budget threads and Babylon‘s deep vault of Roaring 20s designs.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR DESIGN

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• The Whale

Will Win: The Whale
Should Win: The Whale

Upset Possibilities: The credible physical transformation of Brendan Fraser in The Whale seems undeniable, but if it is snubbed then the Academy probably gives it to the mid-century nostalgia of Elvis (and its own prosthetic transformation of the unrecognizable Tom Hanks).

BEST SOUND

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Upset Possibilities: TOUGH call here. Hollywood blockbusters Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water often win this category, and Maverick gets the edge since it’s more beloved and admired, but war films are also known to snag Sound Oscars. I’m going with Maverick, but if I’m wrong it’ll be All Quiet.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Upset Possibilities: Avatar: The Way of Water is the clear choice because has the most, the biggest, and most obvious digital wizardry of the bunch; it’s essentially a three-hour feature-length visual effect unto itself. I’d pick Maverick instead, given how the line between the practical and digital work in that movie is so invisibly seamless, but this is where Avatar 2 wins.

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Click on links below for other major Critics Group Awards and Guild Nominees that have been announced so far for the 2022 / 23 season:

The 95th Academy Award Nominations
Producers Guild of America Winners
Directors Guild of America Winners
Writers Guild of America Nominees
Golden Globe Winners
Chicago Film Critics Association
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
American Film Institute Top 10 Films of 2022
National Board of Review
New York Film Critics Circle