For the Oscar nerds out there: my predictions of who and what the Academy will nominate his Thursday morning for their 88th Annual Awards – in all categories but three (Live Action Short, Animated Short, and Documentary Short). I wouldn’t have a clue where to even begin guessing for those.

In the Best Picture race, the Academy rules state there can be “up to 10” nominees, but 10 are not guaranteed. I’m going to guess 10 anyway, just to cover the possible bases (and give myself a 3-to-5 slot cushion). And of those 10, I’m surprising myself a bit by not putting Star Wars: The Force Awakens in that lineup. When push came to shove, I still wagered that small art house films like Carol, Brooklyn, and Room would find their way in. But if they don’t, The Force Awakens will probably replace them.

The total guesses are 108 nominations across 21 categories.
The predicted leading contenders are:

Mad Max: Fury Road – 10
Carol – 9
Spotlight – 7
The Martian – 7
The Revenant – 6

My Predictions for
the 88th Academy Award Nominations

BEST PICTURE
– The Big Short
– Bridge of Spies
– Brooklyn
– Carol
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
– The Revenant
– Room
– Spotlight
– Straight Outta Compton
(I could see it just being 7, with Brooklyn, Carol, and Room out) 

BEST DIRECTOR
– Todd Haynes, Carol
– Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
– Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
– George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
– Ridley Scott, The Martian

BEST ACTOR
– Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
– Matt Damon, The Martian
– Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
– Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
– Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

BEST ACTRESS
– Cate Blanchett, Carol
– Brie Larson, Room
– Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
– Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
– Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
– Christian Bale, The Big Short
– Tom Hardy, The Revenant
– Michael Keaton, Spotlight
– Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
– Sylvester Stallone, Creed 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
– Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
– Rooney Mara, Carol
– Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
– Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
– Kate Winselt, Steve Jobs

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
– The Hateful Eight (Quentin Tarantino)
– Inside Out (Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley)
– Spotlight (Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer)
– Straight Outta Compton (Jonathan Herman & Andrea Berloff)
– Trainwreck (Amy Schumer)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
– The Big Short (Charles Randolph and Adam McKay)
– Brooklyn (Nick Hornby)
– The Martian (Drew Goddard)
– Room (Emma Donoghue)
– Steve Jobs (Aaron Sorkin)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
– Anomalisa
– The Good Dinosaur
– Inside Out
– The Peanuts Movie
– Shaun the Sheep

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
– Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
– Mustang (France)
– Son Of Saul (Hungary)
– Viva (Ireland)
– A War (Denmark)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
– Carol (Carter Burwell)
– The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
– Inside Out (Michael Giacchino)
– Spotlight (Howard Shore)
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)
(very difficult leaving out the following 3 in this competitive category, but I did)
– The Danish Girl (Alexandre Desplat)
– Steve Jobs (Daniel Pemberton)
– The Revenant (Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
– “Love Me Like You Do”, 50 Shades of Grey
– “See You Again”, Furious 7
– “So Long”, Concussion
– “Til It Happens To You”, The Hunting Ground
– “Writing’s On The Wall”, Spectre

BEST FILM EDITING
– The Big Short
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Revenant
– Spotlight
– Straight Outta Compton

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
– Carol (Ed Lachman)
– Bridge of Spies (Janusz Kaminski)
– The Hateful Eight (Robert Richardson)
– Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)
– The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
(left Sicario and its beloved DP Roger Deakins on the outside looking in, strictly because the film has probably been seen the least of these 6. But if it’s in, Sicario replaces Richardson and The Hateful Eight.)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
– Bridge of Spies
– Brooklyn
– Carol
– The Danish Girl
– Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
– Carol
– Cinderella
– Bridge of Spies
– Brooklyn
– Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
– Black Mass
– Carol
– Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
– Amy
– Cartel Land
– The Look of Silence
– Listen To Me Marlon
– Winter On Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom

BEST SOUND MIXING
– Jurassic World
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens
– Straight Outta Compton

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
– Jurassic World
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens
– Straight Outta Compton

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
– Jurassic World
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens
– The Walk