Roma just became the film to beat.

Despite winning 7 awards over all, The Favourite did not emerge from the BAFTAs (The British Academy of Film & Television Arts) — a.k.a. the British Oscars — as the favorite for a Best Picture win later this month at Hollywood’s Oscar gala.

That would appear to be Roma, the Spanish language film from Mexican director Alfonso Cuarón. It won the BAFTA’s top prize for Outstanding Film. Cuarón also took honors for director, cinematographer, and non-English film.

Given that there is membership crossover between the BAFTA’s and the U.S. film Academy, if The Favourite — a period piece about British monarchy — couldn’t win big with the Brits, it doesn’t stand a chance with the Yanks. Furthermore, if their choice is Roma then that bodes well for its chances at the Oscars.

It’s not a lock, though. Just one year ago, BAFTA Film winner Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri lost the Academy Award to The Shape of Water.

Along with Roma for Picture, the other confirmed front runner is Rami Malek as Best Actor for his Freddie Mercury performance in the Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody. Having won the same award at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild, now landing the BAFTA completes the major awards trifecta. That means Malek has checked every major pre-Oscar award. To lose the last and biggest — Oscar — would be an upset.

Cuarón looks tough to beat for Director, too, but I’m still holding out hope that The Academy will give BlacKkKlansman director Spike Lee his long overdue recognition (and African-Americans along with him) in this major category.

The one thing to keep in mind with all of these Oscar “predictors”: the Academy has diversified its membership over the past few years like never before. Meanwhile, these other industry guilds and orgs haven’t been as aggressively intentional. Consequently, the memberships are increasingly less alike; that makes traditional Oscar precursors not as predictive as they once were.

Nevertheless, now that nearly every major pre-Oscar award has been handed out (still waiting on the Writers Guild, though), we have our front-runners…but even with those considered, there are no locks. Most of these races are still competitive, and Best Picture remains as wide open as that category can get.

If there is one “bet the mortgage” lock at this point, it’s supporting actor Mahershela Ali in Green Book, who won the BAFTA and has also won the other major awards. As with The Favourite for Best Picture, if the Brits can’t honor a great performance by one of their own (i.e. supporting actor Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?), it’s unlikely that the Americans will.

Still, there should be legitimate drama between multiple contenders in most categories. And that’s exciting.

THE BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM & TELEVISION ARTS
Film Awards 2018

Outstanding Film – Roma
Outstanding Director – Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Outstanding Leading Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Outstanding Leading Actress – Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Outstanding Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Outstanding Supporting Actress – Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Outstanding Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
Outstanding Original Screenplay – The Favourite
Outstanding British Film – The Favourite
Outstanding Film Not in the English Language – Roma
Outstanding Documentary – Free Solo
Outstanding Cinematography – Roma
Outstanding Special Visual Effects – Black Panther
Outstanding Sound – Bohemian Rhapsody
Outstanding Costume Design – The Favourite
Outstanding Production Design – The Favourite
Outstanding Editing – Vice
Original Music – A Star Is Born
Outstanding Make Up & Hair – The Favourite
Outstanding Animated Film – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Outstanding British Short Film – 73 Cows
Outstanding British Short Animation – Roughhouse

BAFTA Fellowship: Thelma Schoonmaker (film editor)

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer:
Michael Pearce & Lauren Dark, Beast

Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema: Stephen Woolley and Elizabeth Karlsen

Rising Star: Letitia Wright (Black Panther)

Click on links below for other Critics Group Awards and Guild Nominees that have been announced so far for the 2018 / 19 season:

Directors Guild of America Winners
Screen Actors Guild Winners
Academy Award Nominations
Producers Guild of America Winners
Critics Choice Awards Winners
Writers Guild of America Nominees
Golden Globe Winners
National Society of Film Critics
Boston Society of Film Critics
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Screen Actors Guild Nominees
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Toronto Film Critics Association
Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
AFI Film Awards
Detroit Film Critics Society
Atlanta Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Circle
The National Board of Review