If the history of the Screen Actors Guild nominations is any indication, the following major Oscar contenders now have no shot at winning the Academy Award for Best Picture:
And throw in The Florida Project for good measure.
Why? Because in the 23 year history of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, only once has an eventual Academy Best Picture winner not been nominated by SAG for Cast in a Motion Picture, the guild’s top film award. (That asterisk came in year two, 1995, when SAG didn’t nominate the cast of Braveheart.)
If any of the five films mentioned above somehow move on to win the top Oscar, they’ll have broken a streak lasting more than two decades.
To further emphasize how iron clad the SAG Cast nominees have become at being Best Picture predictors, the past two years the leading Oscar favorites – La La Land and The Revenant – did not secure SAG Cast nominations, . Instead, little indies Moonlight and Spotlight were the big Best Picture winners, following their SAG cast noms (Spotlight also won the cast award for 2015).
Suffice it to say, the 2017 Awards Race has been officially blown wide open, particularly when you also consider that The Post was entirely shut out, snubbing Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep as well.
If SAG has boosted any film’s prospects it’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. It leads with 4 nominations: Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role – Frances McDormand, and two nods for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role – Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell.
Favorite surprise inclusion: The Big Sick, which has been sorely overlooked so far this awards season until getting nods for Best Cast and Supporting Female Actor Holly Hunter. The year’s best rom-com (and one of the year’s best, period) is very deserving of this belated recognition.
The 24th Screen Actors Guild Awards will be handed out live on Sunday January 21, 2017 at 8pm EST/7pm CST/5pm PST, simulcast on TBS and TNT.
24th SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD NOMINATIONS
Films of 2017
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
– Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
– James Franco, The Disaster Artist
– Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
– Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
– Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
– Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
– Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
– Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
– Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
– Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
– Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
– Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
– Sam Rockewell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
54th Life Achievement Recipient
(To see a full list of SAG Television Nominees, click here.)
Click on links below for other Critics Group Awards and Guild Nominees that have been announced so far for the 2017 / 18 season:
Golden Globe Winners
National Society of Film Critics
Producers Guild of America nominees
Writers Guild of America nominees
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
Atlanta Film Critics Circle
San Diego Film Critics Society
Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Toronto Film Critics Association
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Boston Society of Film Critics
Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association
AFI Top 10 of 2017
Critics Choice Award Nominees
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
New York Film Critics Circle
The National Board of Review