My Predictions for THE 88th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS

oscarsunday

Below are my predictions for the 2015 Academy Awards, in all 24 categories. The list is virtually free of commentary except for some thoughts in the Best Picture and Director categories, but does include “Will Win” and “Should Win” options throughout.

According to how I see it, the night’s big winner will be The Revenant with 5 Academy Awards, including Best Picture. That will be followed by Mad Max: Fury Road, also with 5.

My own personal standard for prognostication success is going 20-for-24 or higher. That’s a fairly high bar but, for me, anything below 20 is at best just really good guessing based on being well-informed. To get 20 or more requires a level of prognosticative intuition that goes beyond creating a metric based on outcomes throughout the Oscar race, to a level of insight that’s really worth something. And if memory serves, I think I’ve only broached 20+ a handful of times in my life (yes, this is an annual hobby, occasionally with money on the line). So we’ll see…

MY PREDICTIONS FOR
THE 88TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS

BEST PICTURE

– The Big Short
– Bridge of Spies
– Brooklyn
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
– The Revenant 
– Room
– Spotlight 

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant 

This year’s race is so wide open that the three leading contenders – The Revenant, The Big Short, Spotlight – could easily split votes and allow an underdog to come through with a surprise win (much like Chariots Of Fire is believed to have done in 1981 when Reds and On Golden Pond were the favorites battling it out). If that happens, you could then also see respected blockbusters Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian split votes among similar voting blocs.

All that to say: that’s my argument for a surprise Best Picture win from Room. But I’m still predicting The Revenant.

BEST DIRECTOR

– Adam McKay, The Big Short
– George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
– Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
– Lenny Abrahamson, Room
– Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Will Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

(If Iñárritu had not won Director last year for Birdman, I’d have him down for both “will” and “should”.)

Historically speaking, this is my riskiest (and dumbest) prediction. Iñárritu won the Directors Guild, which makes winning the directing Oscar a near-lock. But I’m going with this hunch that the Academy will not give Iñárritu back-to-back directing Oscars, something they’ve only done twice before in their history. Plus, they’ll have the added advantage of handing Iñárritu an Oscar for Best Picture as a producer. So this seems like the perfect slot for voters to spread the wealth, and give 10-time nominee Mad Max: Fury Road– via director George Miller – its biggest win of the night.

(The following 4 Acting categories and 2 Screenplay categories are all locks. If there are any upsets here, they’ll be major ones.)

BEST ACTOR
– Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
– Matt Damon, The Martian
– Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
– Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
– Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

BEST ACTRESS

– Cate Blanchett, Carol
– Brie Larson, Room
– Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
– Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
– Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Should Win: Brie Larson, Room or Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
– Christian Bale, The Big Short
– Tom Hardy, The Revenant
– Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
– Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
– Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
– Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
– Rooney Mara, Carol
– Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
– Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
– Kate Winselt, Steve Jobs

Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should Win: Rooney Mara, Carol

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

– Bridge of Spies (Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen)
Ex Machina (Alex Garland)
– Inside Out (Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley)
– Spotlight (Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer)
– Straight Outta Compton (Jonathan Herman & Andrea Berloff)

Will Win: Spotlight (Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer
Should Win: Inside Out (Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

– The Big Short (Charles Randolph and Adam McKay)
– Brooklyn (Nick Hornby)
Carol (Phyllis Nagy)
– The Martian (Drew Goddard)
– Room (Emma Donoghue)

Will Win: The Big Short (Charles Randolph and Adam McKay)
Should Win: The Martian (Drew Goddard)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
– Anomalisa
– Boy and the World
 Inside Out
– Shaun the Sheep
When Marnie Was There

Will Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Inside Out

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

– Embrace Of The Serpent (Colombia)
– Mustang (France)
– Son Of Saul (Hungary)
– Theeb (Jordan)
– A War (Denmark)

Will Win: Son Of Saul (Hungary)
Should Win: Son Of Saul (Hungary)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

– Amy
– Cartel Land
– The Look of Silence
– What Happened, Miss Simone?
– Winter On Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom

Will Win: Amy
Should Win: Winter On Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)
– Carol (Carter Burwell)
– The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
– Sicario (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)

Will Win: The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
Should Win: The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone) or Carol (Carter Burwell)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

– “Earned It”, 50 Shades of Grey
 “Mama Ray”, Racing Extinction
– “Simple Song #3”, Youth
– “Til It Happens To You”, The Hunting Ground
– 
“Writing’s On The Wall”, Spectre

Will Win: “Til It Happens To You”, The Hunting Ground
Should Win: “Til It Happens To You”, The Hunting Ground


BEST FILM EDITING

– The Big Short
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Revenant
– Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

– Carol (Ed Lachman)
– The Hateful Eight (Robert Richardson)
– Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)
– The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
– Sicario (Roger Deakins)

Will Win: The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Should Win: Carol (Ed Lachman)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
– Bridge of Spies
– The Danish Girl
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
 The Revenant

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
– Carol
– Cinderella
– The Danish Girl
– Mad Max: Fury Road
 The Revenant

Will Win: The Danish Girl
Should Win: Carol

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
– Mad Max: Fury Road
 The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and Disappeared
 The Revenant

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: The Revenant

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

– Ave Maria
– Day One
– Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
– Shok
– Stutterer

Will Win: Shok
Should Win: Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
– Bear Story
– Prologue
– Sanjay’s Super Team
– We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
– World of Tomorrow

Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Should Win: World of Tomorrow

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

– Body Team 12
– Chau, Beyond The Lines
– Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
– A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
– Last Day of Freedom

Will Win: Body Team 12
Should Win: Chau, Beyond The Lines

BEST SOUND MIXING
– Bridge of Spies
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
 The Revenant
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
 The Revenant
– Sicario
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
– Ex Machina
– Mad Max: Fury Road
– The Martian
 The Revenant
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

One thought on “My Predictions for THE 88th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS

Leave a Reply